Forum:2007 Atlantic hurricane season/December
December Week 1 AoI: Northeast of Puerto Rico I know, I know, it's December, the season is over and nothing is forming, but still. The convection that has been persisting around 50W has finally developed a surface low of 1010 mbar. While nothing will probably form, there is still a possibility of subtropical development. Interesting? |'C A I N E R'||''ninety-one| 22:23, 1 December 2007 (UTC) :You mean that low northeast of the Leeward Islands? Yeah, I noticed that, too. The surface analysis says it's being "absorbed". Who's absorbing who? There's a larger extratropical system and then there's that smaller thing that appears to be putting some good distance between itself and the ET looking thing. The color IR (or the visible for that matter) doesn't look all that impressive. But the b/w IR included in the discussion gets my attention and reminds me of someone named Peter. This is a recent formation, however, and will need to sustain itself for a little bit for me to get all that excited. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 08:38, 2 December 2007 (UTC) ::Convection consolidating according to the TWD. We'll see. That'd be something, a pre-season and a post season storm. That hasn't happened in... well, four years, but still it would be cool. 'Cyclone1(14:06 UTC -2/12/2007) :::No mention in the TWD that I see. The surface analysis says the low is dissipating and the convection doesn't look as strong as last night. The door may be closing. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 21:30, 2 December 2007 (UTC) Week 2 17L.Olga AoI: East of the Antilles Yeah, another persistent area of convection in the Central Atlantic, but unlike last week's, this one has model support. Both the NOGAPS and CMC sent this thing through the Caribbean as a Tropical Storm. If this did happen, it would be only the second December Caribbean storm on record, after Odette in 2003. Shear is decreasing slightly, and is currently around 20 knots. SST's are about 27 degrees. It could happen. |C A I N E R||''ninety-one''| 20:19, 8 December 2007 (UTC) :For the record, the offseason traditionally doesn't cause this much excitement. That patch of ocean northeast of the Leeward Islands has been quite agitated of late. Wind shear has decreased over 20 knots in the area just ahead of this system, which appears to be associated with a stationary front to the north. I reserve judgement at this point because a) there's no low pressure area associated with it and b) because it's December 8. Just like the previous system, it needs to sustain itself for at least 24 hours before I can get excited. The last system, mind you, could not. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 22:24, 8 December 2007 (UTC) ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 24N54W 15N57W 5N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 55W-58W. SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP FROM THE TROUGH WITH TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND MOVE TOWARDS HISPANIOLA. THE SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. This storm now officially has my attention. Of course, now there a long stripe of missing sat imagery passing right over the storm and nowhere else. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 19:02, 9 December 2007 (UTC) 94L.INVEST It is now up on the NRL! This is a surprise! I'd never would have thought a storm could form ... SargeAbernathy 21:30, 9 December 2007 (UTC) :Okay, so technically it's not a storm yet. I know, I know. I realize that. Hey, this is still a surprise though. SargeAbernathy 21:32, 9 December 2007 (UTC) ::Yeah it surprised me. I've been tracking this system or a while, but still, surprising. ''Cyclone1(21:36 UTC -9/12/2007) :::Also, it's winds are Tropical Storm force, so if it does develop a closed circulation, it will be Subtropical Storm Olga. 2007 and 2001 are like twins, no? |'C A I N E R'||''ninety-one| 21:50, 9 December 2007 (UTC) ::::Well, damn it. Trust the season to stop being over when you least expect it. Stupid season.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 23:27, 9 December 2007 (UTC) :::::2003 and 2007, I meant. But 2001 too, I suppose. Anyway, Dvorak is now classifying 94L as tropical. I can see why: Convection around the proposed center, warm core. So, Tropical Storm Olga perhaps? 71.7.210.87 00:54, 10 December 2007 (UTC) ::::::WOW i onyl found out about this storm when i was nosing around at nasas website - its well annoying though as i was just thinking about going to bed but now i am really excited as the NHC have put up a tropical disturbance statement. Jason Rees 02:36, 10 December 2007 (UTC) The 2007 AHS ended (theoretically) two weeks ago. Apparently, nature didn't get the memo. I'm still wary of this thing because it still doesn't have a low pressure center, but with NHC saying it has the potential to develop in 24 hours, it definately has my attention. Cainer, at least 2001's Olga developed in the season (although this one has yet to earn the moniker). You gotta love the tropics. Even if this one's a dud, it makes two invests already this December. -- [[User:SkyFury|'''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|''Fury]] 04:16, 10 December 2007 (UTC) : It's not on NRL right now. What happened with it? Titoxd(?!?) 05:34, 10 December 2007 (UTC) ::Aww man, looks like this one is going to fall just short. It just got a closed circulation, but wind shear is increasing. I'd be surprised if it gets a name now. Damn, it came so close. Shoulda gotten a closed circulation sooner, then we might've had something. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:26, 10 December 2007 (UTC) :::To clarify, I said it's unlikely to get a name. It could become a tropical depression and indeed looks like one now, but I don't think it'll be Olga. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:24, 10 December 2007 (UTC) 17L.Olga SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED INTO SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA. A FULL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY 10 PM EST...0300 UTC. Who would've thought? |'C A I N E R||''ninety-one''| 01:51, 11 December 2007 (UTC) :Gotta love the tropics. It defies explanation or definition. I just put up my Christmas decorations for crying out loud and we're talking about a named system in the North Atlantic. It's crazy. I can just see the people in the Domincan Republic now going, "What the flaming f*** is this?" It's like a Shakesperian comedy. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 03:55, 11 December 2007 (UTC) ::Decreasing strength. Will it be a tropical storm? Probably a silly question but is it possible to reduce to depression strength then make tropical transition. If possible, what would happen to the name? 81.86.39.6 13:06, 11 December 2007 (UTC) :::Wow, it's snowing outside and I'm able to return here to talk about an out-of-season storm in the Atlantic! In regards to the above question, it'll still remain Olga. It has its name, it doesn't change. The storm is predicted to become a TD soon, so I don't think there's going to be much in terms of development (then again, this IS the Atlantic, anything could happen). It's also predicted to go right through Jamaica as a Tropical Depression. It may not be that strong, but their still repairing after Dean earlier this year, this may hinder or worsen some efforts. - Enzo Aquarius 15:25, 11 December 2007 (UTC) ::::Snowing! Where are you? It's in the 70s here in Atlanta. Olga is now stronger than it's ever been. I hope the rains don't screw up Hispaniola too bad. There situation is bad enough over there. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:27, 11 December 2007 (UTC) :::::YES!!! After a month or more of trying, I can finally log on! Well, it's still slow, it took me five minutes for this page to load and for me to log on. Well, guess what, both off-season storms are female! Too bad I wasn't here for Sidr, Gonu, and all the others. Ah well, it's snowing here too, in S. Ontario. BIG snowstorm, 17 people died in the United States from this. Oh, and TEB, I responded to your question about the 2007 AHS thingy. Hope I stay logged on. Well, NHC dissipates it. Well, I'm not sure if it will be enough for a snow day, but who knows. Unless it turns north or misses the mountains, it's done for. Could still be trouble for the Caribbean though. Remember Dean and Felix? Well, bye for now. 2007Astro'sHurricane 23:11, 11 December 2007 (UTC) Fully tropical now - Tropical Storm Olga. 147.70.242.40 00:28, 12 December 2007 (UTC) :And 50 knots! Wow, I don't think anyone was expecting that jump. Of course, no one was expecting there to even be a storm on December 11. ("Yer damn right, 50 knots. An' I'm ready to use every one of 'em") -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 00:56, 12 December 2007 (UTC) Speaking of unexpected, did you notice that they slipped on the first discussion and gave the time as 11pm EDT instead of 10pm EST? They fixed their error on the later ones, but someone was a bit hasty in their copy and paste. :) 4.152.3.130 03:52, 12 December 2007 (UTC) :Olga's done. The convection's had it. The next advisory should be the last. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:41, 12 December 2007 (UTC) ::Done, but did its fair share of the work in the 2007 body count before leaving, unfortunately. Body count at 22 and rising and all that.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 04:47, 14 December 2007 (UTC) Week 4 95L.INVEST AoI: Far Eastern Atlantic Well, the Atlantic has produced another oddity. This (http://img291.imageshack.us/img291/6788/sublowkg2.png) has been steadily consolidating its convection all day, and it's looking pretty good. If it can contract it's windfield and develop a flat or thermal core, we could have STD 18/STS Pablo on our hands. Cool, eh? Oh, and if it does develop, the similarities between 2007 and 2003 would be quite shocking: Odette/Olga, both affected the Caribbean in early December, Peter/Pablo, both formed late December in the Subtropical Atlantic. Weird! |C A I N E R||''ninety-one''| 23:15, 27 December 2007 (UTC) :It's interesting, but the SSTs are below 25 degrees C in that area (about 20-23 degrees, 70-73d F). Wind shear is blowing at 20 knots where it is right now and unless it heads northwest, will get worse. West, south, southeast, northeast and north are all worse and southwest's not all that great either. Gently northwest is the only place this thing has a chance. And even then, there's a stationary front there that would love to eat this low for lunch. I won't write it off yet, but that's a helluva lot to overcome. The TWD mentions it as follows: ::A 1011 MB LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER NEAR 26N38W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING S THEN SW TO NEAR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1200 UTC SHOWED VERY CLEAR THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE LOW CENTER AND WITHIN 75 NM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH N OF 24N. :-- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 18:22, 28 December 2007 (UTC) SSD is now calling it 90L. I won't make it an official header until the NRL has it, but yeah. Olga was 94L, so this one should be 95L. Also, the latest TWD: THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... OF INTEREST IS THE DEEP CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 26N38W. THIS SYSTEM HAS REMAINED STATIONARY FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS STARTING TO DEVELOP. QUIKSCAT WINDS SUGGEST THAT THERE ARE SOME GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN CONTAMINATION IN THE OBSERVED WINDS. THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND ITS FRONTAL STRUCTURE HAS TRANSITIONED TO A WEAK TRAILING TROUGH. THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE ANALYSES INDICATED THAT THE CYCLONE MAY BE BECOMING A HYBRID SYSTEM...BUT UNTIL MORE SYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONSIDERED AN OCCLUDED LOW. VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY WEAK AS THE UPPER PORTION OF THE CYCLONE IS DISPLACED SOMEWHAT NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION. THIS LOW-MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT MAY ONLY LAST FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO BEFORE STRONG UPPER WESTERLIES IMPACT THE SYSTEM WITH THE APPROACH OF A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MEANDER IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS BEFORE MOVING OFF SLOWLY TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. -- RattleMan 02:10, 29 December 2007 (UTC) :Doesn't the Atlantic get tired? Why doesn't it go vacationing in Australia or something and give us a break? There's something wrong with this picture if we're talking about college bowls and Atlantic invests at the same time. It's after Christmas for Christ's sake. What happened to winter? This is the third invest this December. I don't care whether they develop or not, it's still nuts. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 05:17, 29 December 2007 (UTC) 95L.INVEST Not up on the NRL yet, but people are saying there is something wrong with the site. (There's always something wrong with the site IMO). It is up as 95L on wunderground.com and storm2k members are treating it as such. SargeAbernathy 17:46, 29 December 2007 (UTC) :Disturbance statement out: "A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 950 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES HAS BEEN GRADUALLY ACQUIRING SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE PAST DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF ITS CIRCULATION CENTER...AND IT COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY." :I don't know what to say to that. I don't know if it has fast enough winds to be Pablo, should it continue to develop, but wow! We just took down our Christmas decorations today. New Years Eve is the day after tomorrow. Cyclone Melanie is off Australia and I know I'm not the only guy wondering what the hell is going on. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 19:48, 29 December 2007 (UTC) ::It's up on the NRL now. 65.10.5.17 22:58, 29 December 2007 (UTC) :::TWD from 7 pm says that satellite classifications suggest that it could already be a subtropical storm. NHC is waiting for just a little increase in organization before they call it. I think that little increase is a) unimportant, I think it already deserves a name; and b) might not happen, as shear is forecast to increase tomorrow. I'm worried that this storm's gonna get screwed. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 04:39, 30 December 2007 (UTC) ::::A little question. If NHC doesn't call this a storm (regardless of how (sub)tropical it is and, in the post season, they find out it reached storm strength, will it be called Pablo, Subtropical Storm 16, or will it remain unnamed, assuming no other storms form this year? Jake52 My island 10:31, 30 December 2007 (UTC) :::::You mean in post analysis (it is postseason)? No. If it's designated after the fact, it doesn't get a name. I think this one's been screwed. It looks much less organized now. That's the second time this year I've felt like an invest got cheated (99L in August). That's a shame, we could've had history on our hands: another two storm December. This has been a crazy offseason so far. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury''']] 22:57, 30 December 2007 (UTC)